2026 Texas Real Estate Predictions: What Buyers & Sellers Should Expect
As Texans gear up for a new year, one question keeps coming up: What will the 2026 real estate market look like in Texas? After the recent Buffini “Bold Predictions” conference, industry experts revealed a clear message — the market isn’t slowing down, it’s simply normalizing.
For Texas homebuyers, sellers, and investors, that’s big news. Our state continues to attract new residents, businesses, and investors, and 2026 is shaping up to be a market full of opportunity for those who understand the shift.
Here’s your outlook for Texas’s 2026 housing market.
2026 Looks Less Like 2021 and More Like 2019 — A Healthy Reset for Texas
The explosive frenzy of 2020–2021 was never sustainable. Record-low interest rates inflated demand and pushed inventory to historic lows — especially in Texas cities like Austin, San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas.
But 2026?
Experts say it will resemble 2019 — a more stable, predictable market.
Key Texas Market Indicators for 2026
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Inventory levels continue rising, giving buyers more options
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Days on market trending toward mid-30s, up from the ultra-fast sales of 2021
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Home prices flattening, particularly in overheated metros
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Interest rates expected to ease, possibly dipping below 6%
Even a small rate drop could unlock thousands of Texas transactions as homeowners finally feel comfortable moving again. For anyone wondering “Will the Texas housing market crash in 2026?” — nothing in the data supports that.
Texas is normalizing, not declining.
Who’s Buying and Selling in Texas? Shifting Demographics Matter
Texas has seen major demographic changes over the past decade, and 2026 continues that trend.
Texas Sellers in 2026
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Median seller age: early to mid-60s
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Many are retirees relocating within Texas or moving closer to family
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Downsizing remains a top priority
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Cash buyers are increasingly common — especially in rural and suburban counties
In markets like Fayette County, Bastrop County, and the surrounding Central Texas region, sellers are motivated by lifestyle changes, not market timing.
Texas Buyers in 2026
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First-time buyer age trending up toward 40
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Affordability challenges in large metros push younger buyers toward suburban and rural communities
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Repeat buyers (average age: early 60s) remain the largest share of the market
Texas continues to attract out-of-state buyers, many of whom arrive with cash or large down payments, putting them in a strong position against local first-time buyers.
Fewer Agents, More Sales: Why 2026 Rewards Texas Professionals
Across the U.S., and especially in Texas, the number of licensed real estate agents is shrinking. Experts predict:
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20% fewer active agents by 2026
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14% more home sales
When you combine increasing sales with fewer agents, it creates an environment where true professionals gain massive market share.
Check out our all-star team of real estate professionals here.
Texas is especially competitive — buyers and sellers want local expertise, real relationships, and real guidance. Agents who rely solely on online leads or outdated 2021-style marketing will fall behind. Those who focus on connection, data, and service will win.
Texas Housing Market Predictions for 2026
Here’s what the experts expect statewide:
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Home prices may soften slightly (around 3–4% decrease)
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Sales volume should increase modestly
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Inventory will continue rising, improving buyer choice
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Small towns and exurban areas will grow faster than major metros
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Retiree and cash-buyer demand remains strong
For areas like Fayette County, La Grange, Schulenburg, Bastrop, and rural Central Texas, the return to a steady, skills-based market will create more opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
How Texans Can Prepare for the 2026 Market
Buyers
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Don’t wait for rates to “crash” — a small dip will bring big competition
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Look at expanding areas outside major metros
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Work with an agent who understands local, county-level trends (hey that’s us!)
Sellers
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Set realistic prices based on 2024–2025 data, not 2021 highs
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Lean into presentation: staged homes and strong marketing matter again
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Serious buyers are out there — especially retirees and relocators
Investors
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2026 may offer excellent entry points as prices flatten
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Texas remains one of the strongest long-term investment markets in the U.S.
The Final Word: 2026 Is a Year of Opportunity in Texas Real Estate
Unlike the unpredictable markets of the past few years, 2026 brings clarity, balance, and opportunity. Texas continues to grow, attract new talent, and maintain strong long-term fundamentals. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, next year may be one of the best years to make a move.
If you’d like help understanding your local market or planning your next real estate step, our team is here to guide you.
